{"id":5623,"date":"2021-03-11T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/?p=5623"},"modified":"2023-11-01T20:46:09","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:46:09","slug":"modeling-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/pt\/news-resources\/modeling-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelando o Futuro"},"content":{"rendered":"

Como o Estudo de Requisitos de Energia ajuda a estruturar metas de neg\u00f3cios<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/h3>\n

Mar\u00e7o de 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\"\"A cada dois anos, o grupo de previs\u00e3o da Hoosier Energy tira um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias de energia para desenvolver previs\u00f5es de carga de 20 anos em toda a rede el\u00e9trica. Essa an\u00e1lise de neg\u00f3cios \u00e9 compilada no Power Requirements Study (PRS) e aborda tr\u00eas fun\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais principais \u2013 planejamento do sistema, or\u00e7amento e requisitos financeiros. Tina Elliott e Justin Rice lideram o trabalho de previs\u00e3o na Hoosier Energy e seu processo \u00e9 focado em pesquisa e orientado por dados.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As informa\u00e7\u00f5es coletadas fornecem tend\u00eancias residenciais, comerciais e industriais para cada membro. A lideran\u00e7a da cooperativa recebe uma previs\u00e3o preliminar e os dados s\u00e3o muito espec\u00edficos e acion\u00e1veis. O PRS inclui dados hist\u00f3ricos, n\u00famero projetado de membros-consumidores, necessidades de energia, taxas de crescimento e demanda do sistema.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Com esses dados, o grupo de previs\u00e3o cria um resumo executivo para cada cooperativa e seu conselho de diretores. O relat\u00f3rio completo tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 dispon\u00edvel, e \u00e9 aqui que est\u00e3o os detalhes espec\u00edficos e abrangentes. Este documento ajuda com as necessidades comerciais, como a documenta\u00e7\u00e3o necess\u00e1ria para solicita\u00e7\u00f5es de empr\u00e9stimo da RUS.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00f3s olhamos para os dados historicamente e em uma variedade de conjuntos de dados, o que nos permite apresentar m\u00faltiplos cen\u00e1rios de previs\u00e3o. Isso permite flexibilidade em condi\u00e7\u00f5es din\u00e2micas para ajudar a Hoosier Energy e os membros com uma ampla gama de planejamento\u201d, disse Elliott.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A Hoosier Energy tamb\u00e9m desenvolve um estudo de todo o sistema para seus pr\u00f3prios prop\u00f3sitos de planejamento. Essas informa\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o uma agrega\u00e7\u00e3o dos resultados previstos de todas as cooperativas associadas. O PRS mais recente mostra que os requisitos de carga devem crescer modestamente at\u00e9 2038 \u2013 liderados principalmente pelos setores residencial e comercial. Espera-se que o crescimento industrial atinja seu pico em 2025 e diminua quase 250 gigawatts-hora durante os 13 anos seguintes. Impulsionando essa redu\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 a perda esperada de carga de minera\u00e7\u00e3o localizada no territ\u00f3rio associado.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o comparadas com dados de outras concession\u00e1rias de energia el\u00e9trica e do State Utility Forecasting Group. Os dados mostram que a taxa m\u00e9dia de crescimento anual da Hoosier Energy para o per\u00edodo de previs\u00e3o de 20 anos \u00e9 de 0,6% para energia e 0,7% para demanda. Isso \u00e9 compar\u00e1vel \u00e0s proje\u00e7\u00f5es desses grupos. Essas taxas de crescimento s\u00e3o baseadas nas condi\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas e clim\u00e1ticas normais esperadas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cen\u00e1rios alternativos s\u00e3o desenvolvidos para varia\u00e7\u00f5es dessas condi\u00e7\u00f5es. As vari\u00e1veis econ\u00f4micas esperadas e alternativas incluem o \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor, dados demogr\u00e1ficos e pre\u00e7os de commodities. Os dados s\u00e3o obtidos da Moody's, Woods & Poole e da Energy Information Administration. As condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas s\u00e3o ajustadas nos modelos usando graus-dia de aquecimento e resfriamento com clima normal, ameno e severo com base em dados hist\u00f3ricos para o territ\u00f3rio de cada membro.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cDetalhar o crescimento dos membros \u00e9 uma m\u00e9trica essencial para medir a sa\u00fade e fornecer dire\u00e7\u00e3o para as cooperativas associadas\u201d, disse Rice.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A profundidade da an\u00e1lise do grupo de previs\u00e3o usa diversas vari\u00e1veis e ferramentas de modelagem para fornecer uma base s\u00f3lida para o planejamento da cooperativa membro e da Hoosier Energy. As previs\u00f5es desenvolvidas fornecem informa\u00e7\u00f5es confi\u00e1veis sobre a rede de energia e seu crescimento para dar suporte a decis\u00f5es comerciais s\u00f3lidas. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ler mais<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A cada dois anos, o grupo de previs\u00e3o da Hoosier Energy analisa as tend\u00eancias de energia para desenvolver previs\u00f5es de carga de 20 anos em toda a rede el\u00e9trica. Essa an\u00e1lise de neg\u00f3cios \u00e9 compilada no Power"},"author":1,"featured_media":7412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[199,200,83,92,201,196,202,203,204,205,206],"class_list":["post-5623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight-stories","tag-budgeting","tag-business","tag-energylines","tag-energylines-2021","tag-financial","tag-march","tag-planning","tag-power-requirements","tag-prs","tag-study","tag-trends","category-18","description-off"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\r\nModeling the Future - Hoosier Energy<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Every two years Hoosier Energy\u2019s forecasting looks at energy trends to develop 20-year load forecasts across the network. 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