{"id":5623,"date":"2021-03-11T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/?p=5623"},"modified":"2023-11-01T20:46:09","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:46:09","slug":"modeling-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/fr\/news-resources\/modeling-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Mod\u00e9liser le futur"},"content":{"rendered":"

Comment l'\u00e9tude des besoins en \u00e9nergie aide \u00e0 structurer les objectifs commerciaux<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/h3>\n

Mars 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Tous les deux ans, le groupe de pr\u00e9vision de Hoosier Energy prend un instantan\u00e9 des tendances \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques pour \u00e9laborer des pr\u00e9visions de charge sur 20 ans sur l'ensemble du r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique. Cette analyse commerciale est compil\u00e9e dans l'\u00e9tude sur les besoins en \u00e9nergie (Power Requirements Study, PRS) et aborde trois fonctions commerciales principales : la planification du syst\u00e8me, la budg\u00e9tisation et les besoins financiers. Tina Elliott et Justin Rice dirigent les travaux de pr\u00e9vision chez Hoosier Energy et leur processus est ax\u00e9 sur la recherche et guid\u00e9 par les donn\u00e9es.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les informations recueillies fournissent des tendances r\u00e9sidentielles, commerciales et industrielles pour chaque membre. Les dirigeants de la coop\u00e9rative re\u00e7oivent des pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9liminaires et les donn\u00e9es sont tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9cises et exploitables. Le PRS comprend des donn\u00e9es historiques, le nombre pr\u00e9vu de membres-consommateurs, les besoins \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, les taux de croissance et la demande du syst\u00e8me.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00c0 partir de ces donn\u00e9es, le groupe de pr\u00e9vision cr\u00e9e un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour chaque coop\u00e9rative et son conseil d'administration. Le rapport complet est \u00e9galement disponible, et c'est l\u00e0 que se trouvent des d\u00e9tails sp\u00e9cifiques et complets. Ce document aide \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre aux besoins de l'entreprise, comme la documentation requise pour les demandes de pr\u00eat RUS.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00ab Nous analysons les donn\u00e9es de mani\u00e8re historique et \u00e0 travers une vari\u00e9t\u00e9 d'ensembles de donn\u00e9es, ce qui nous permet de pr\u00e9senter plusieurs sc\u00e9narios de pr\u00e9vision. Cela permet une flexibilit\u00e9 dans les conditions dynamiques pour aider Hoosier Energy et ses membres \u00e0 planifier un large \u00e9ventail de projets \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Elliott.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoosier Energy \u00e9labore \u00e9galement une \u00e9tude \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle du syst\u00e8me \u00e0 des fins de planification. Ces informations sont une agr\u00e9gation des r\u00e9sultats pr\u00e9vus de toutes les coop\u00e9ratives membres. La derni\u00e8re PRS montre que les besoins en \u00e9nergie devraient augmenter modestement jusqu'en 2038, principalement en raison des secteurs r\u00e9sidentiel et commercial. La croissance industrielle devrait atteindre son apog\u00e9e en 2025 et diminuer de pr\u00e8s de 250 gigawattheures au cours des 13 ann\u00e9es suivantes. Cette r\u00e9duction est due \u00e0 la perte attendue de la charge mini\u00e8re situ\u00e9e sur le territoire des membres.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9visions sont compar\u00e9es aux donn\u00e9es d'autres services publics d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et du State Utility Forecasting Group. Les donn\u00e9es montrent que le taux de croissance annuel moyen de Hoosier Energy pour la p\u00e9riode de pr\u00e9vision de 20 ans est de 0,6 % pour l'\u00e9nergie et de 0,7 % pour la demande. Ces chiffres sont comparables aux projections de ces groupes. Ces taux de croissance sont bas\u00e9s sur les conditions \u00e9conomiques et m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques normales attendues.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Des sc\u00e9narios alternatifs sont \u00e9labor\u00e9s pour les variations de ces conditions. Les variables \u00e9conomiques attendues et alternatives comprennent l'indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation, les donn\u00e9es d\u00e9mographiques et les prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res. Les donn\u00e9es proviennent de Moody's, Woods & Poole et de l'Energy Information Administration. Les conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques sont ajust\u00e9es dans les mod\u00e8les en utilisant les degr\u00e9s-jours de chauffage et de refroidissement avec des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques normales, douces et extr\u00eames bas\u00e9es sur des donn\u00e9es historiques pour le territoire de chaque membre.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00ab D\u00e9tailler la croissance des membres est une mesure essentielle pour mesurer la sant\u00e9 et fournir une orientation aux coop\u00e9ratives membres \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Rice.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L'analyse approfondie du groupe de pr\u00e9vision utilise diverses variables et outils de mod\u00e9lisation pour fournir une base solide \u00e0 la coop\u00e9rative membre et \u00e0 la planification de Hoosier Energy. Les pr\u00e9visions \u00e9labor\u00e9es fournissent des informations fiables sur le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique et sa croissance pour soutenir des d\u00e9cisions commerciales judicieuses. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En savoir plus<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tous les deux ans, le groupe de pr\u00e9vision de Hoosier Energy prend un instantan\u00e9 des tendances \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques pour \u00e9laborer des pr\u00e9visions de charge sur 20 ans sur l'ensemble du r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique. Cette analyse commerciale est compil\u00e9e dans le Power"},"author":1,"featured_media":7412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[199,200,83,92,201,196,202,203,204,205,206],"class_list":["post-5623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight-stories","tag-budgeting","tag-business","tag-energylines","tag-energylines-2021","tag-financial","tag-march","tag-planning","tag-power-requirements","tag-prs","tag-study","tag-trends","category-18","description-off"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\r\nModeling the Future - Hoosier Energy<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Every two years Hoosier Energy\u2019s forecasting looks at energy trends to develop 20-year load forecasts across the network. 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