{"id":5623,"date":"2021-03-11T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/?p=5623"},"modified":"2023-11-01T20:46:09","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:46:09","slug":"modeling-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/es\/news-resources\/modeling-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelando el futuro"},"content":{"rendered":"

C\u00f3mo el estudio de requisitos de energ\u00eda ayuda a estructurar los objetivos comerciales<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/h3>\n

marzo 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Cada dos a\u00f1os, el grupo de pron\u00f3stico de Hoosier Energy toma una instant\u00e1nea de las tendencias energ\u00e9ticas para desarrollar pron\u00f3sticos de carga de 20 a\u00f1os en toda la red el\u00e9ctrica. Este an\u00e1lisis comercial se compila en el Estudio de requisitos de energ\u00eda (PRS) y aborda tres funciones comerciales principales: planificaci\u00f3n del sistema, presupuesto y requisitos financieros. Tina Elliott y Justin Rice lideran el trabajo de pron\u00f3stico en Hoosier Energy y su proceso se centra en la investigaci\u00f3n y se basa en datos.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La informaci\u00f3n recopilada proporciona tendencias residenciales, comerciales e industriales para cada miembro. El liderazgo cooperativo recibe un pron\u00f3stico preliminar y los datos son muy espec\u00edficos y procesables. El PRS incluye datos hist\u00f3ricos, n\u00famero proyectado de miembros-consumidores, necesidades de energ\u00eda, tasas de crecimiento y demanda del sistema.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Con estos datos, el grupo de previsi\u00f3n crea un resumen ejecutivo para cada cooperativa y su junta directiva. El informe completo tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 disponible, y aqu\u00ed es donde se encuentran los detalles espec\u00edficos y extensos. Este documento ayuda con las necesidades comerciales, como la documentaci\u00f3n requerida para las solicitudes de pr\u00e9stamo RUS.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cEchamos un vistazo a los datos hist\u00f3ricamente y en una variedad de conjuntos de datos, lo que nos permite presentar m\u00faltiples escenarios de pron\u00f3stico. Esto permite flexibilidad en condiciones din\u00e1micas para ayudar a Hoosier Energy ya sus miembros con una amplia variedad de planes\u201d, dijo Elliott.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoosier Energy tambi\u00e9n desarrolla un estudio de todo el sistema para sus propios fines de planificaci\u00f3n. Esta informaci\u00f3n es una agregaci\u00f3n de los resultados previstos de todas las cooperativas miembro. El PRS m\u00e1s reciente muestra que se prev\u00e9 que los requisitos de carga crezcan modestamente hasta 2038, principalmente a trav\u00e9s de los sectores residencial y comercial. Se espera que el crecimiento industrial alcance su punto m\u00e1ximo en 2025 y disminuya casi 250 gigavatios-hora durante los siguientes 13 a\u00f1os. Lo que impulsa esta reducci\u00f3n es la p\u00e9rdida esperada de carga minera ubicada en territorio miembro.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Los pron\u00f3sticos se comparan con datos de otras empresas el\u00e9ctricas y del State Utility Forecasting Group. Los datos muestran que la tasa de crecimiento anual promedio de Hoosier Energy para el per\u00edodo de pron\u00f3stico de 20 a\u00f1os es del 0,6 por ciento para la energ\u00eda y del 0,7 por ciento para la demanda. Esto es comparable con las proyecciones de estos grupos. Estas tasas de crecimiento se basan en las condiciones clim\u00e1ticas normales y econ\u00f3micas esperadas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Se desarrollan escenarios alternativos para las variaciones de estas condiciones. Las variables econ\u00f3micas esperadas y alternativas incluyen el \u00edndice de precios al consumidor, datos demogr\u00e1ficos y precios de productos b\u00e1sicos. Los datos provienen de Moody's, Woods & Poole y la Administraci\u00f3n de Informaci\u00f3n de Energ\u00eda. Las condiciones clim\u00e1ticas se ajustan en los modelos utilizando grados d\u00eda de calefacci\u00f3n y refrigeraci\u00f3n con clima normal, templado y severo en base a datos hist\u00f3ricos para el territorio de cada miembro.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cDetallar el crecimiento de los miembros es una m\u00e9trica esencial para medir la salud y brindar orientaci\u00f3n a las cooperativas miembro\u201d, dijo Rice.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La profundidad del an\u00e1lisis del grupo de pron\u00f3stico utiliza diversas variables y herramientas de modelado para proporcionar una base s\u00f3lida para la planificaci\u00f3n de cooperativas de miembros y Hoosier Energy. Los pron\u00f3sticos desarrollados brindan informaci\u00f3n confiable sobre la red el\u00e9ctrica y su crecimiento para respaldar decisiones comerciales acertadas. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lee mas<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Cada dos a\u00f1os, el grupo de pron\u00f3stico de Hoosier Energy toma una instant\u00e1nea de las tendencias energ\u00e9ticas para desarrollar pron\u00f3sticos de carga de 20 a\u00f1os en toda la red el\u00e9ctrica. Este an\u00e1lisis comercial est\u00e1 compilado en Power"},"author":1,"featured_media":7412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[199,200,83,92,201,196,202,203,204,205,206],"class_list":["post-5623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight-stories","tag-budgeting","tag-business","tag-energylines","tag-energylines-2021","tag-financial","tag-march","tag-planning","tag-power-requirements","tag-prs","tag-study","tag-trends","category-18","description-off"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\r\nModeling the Future - Hoosier Energy<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Every two years Hoosier Energy\u2019s forecasting looks at energy trends to develop 20-year load forecasts across the network. 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