{"id":5623,"date":"2021-03-11T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/?p=5623"},"modified":"2023-11-01T20:46:09","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T01:46:09","slug":"modeling-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hoosierenergy.com\/de\/news-resources\/modeling-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Die Zukunft modellieren"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wie die Power Requirements Study dabei hilft, Gesch\u00e4ftsziele zu strukturieren<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/h3>\n

M\u00e4rz 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Alle zwei Jahre erstellt die Prognosegruppe von Hoosier Energy eine Momentaufnahme der Energietrends, um 20-Jahres-Lastprognosen f\u00fcr das gesamte Stromnetz zu erstellen. Diese Gesch\u00e4ftsanalyse wird in der Power Requirements Study (PRS) zusammengefasst und befasst sich mit drei Hauptgesch\u00e4ftsfunktionen \u2013 Systemplanung, Budgetierung und Finanzbedarf. Tina Elliott und Justin Rice leiten die Prognosearbeit bei Hoosier Energy und ihr Prozess ist forschungsorientiert und datengesteuert.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Die gesammelten Informationen liefern Wohn-, Gewerbe- und Industrietrends f\u00fcr jedes Mitglied. Die Genossenschaftsleitung erh\u00e4lt eine vorl\u00e4ufige Prognose und die Daten sind sehr spezifisch und umsetzbar. Das PRS umfasst historische Daten, die prognostizierte Anzahl der Mitgliedsverbraucher, den Energiebedarf, die Wachstumsraten und die Systemnachfrage.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Anhand dieser Daten erstellt die Prognosegruppe eine Zusammenfassung f\u00fcr jede Genossenschaft und ihren Vorstand. Der vollst\u00e4ndige Bericht ist ebenfalls verf\u00fcgbar und enth\u00e4lt spezifische und ausf\u00fchrliche Details. Dieses Dokument hilft bei gesch\u00e4ftlichen Anforderungen, beispielsweise bei der Dokumentation, die f\u00fcr RUS-Kreditantr\u00e4ge erforderlich ist.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201eWir betrachten die Daten historisch und in verschiedenen Datens\u00e4tzen, sodass wir mehrere Prognoseszenarien pr\u00e4sentieren k\u00f6nnen. Dies erm\u00f6glicht Flexibilit\u00e4t unter dynamischen Bedingungen und hilft Hoosier Energy und seinen Mitgliedern bei der Planung eines breiten Spektrums\u201c, sagte Elliott.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoosier Energy erstellt au\u00dferdem eine systemweite Studie f\u00fcr seine eigenen Planungszwecke. Diese Informationen sind eine Zusammenfassung der Prognoseergebnisse aller Mitgliedsgenossenschaften. Die neueste PRS zeigt, dass der Lastbedarf bis 2038 voraussichtlich moderat steigen wird \u2013 haupts\u00e4chlich durch den Wohn- und Gewerbesektor. Das industrielle Wachstum wird voraussichtlich 2025 seinen H\u00f6hepunkt erreichen und in den folgenden 13 Jahren um fast 250 Gigawattstunden zur\u00fcckgehen. Der Grund f\u00fcr diesen R\u00fcckgang ist der erwartete Verlust der Bergbaulast im Mitgliedsgebiet.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Die Prognosen werden mit Daten anderer Elektrizit\u00e4tsunternehmen und der State Utility Forecasting Group verglichen. Die Daten zeigen, dass die durchschnittliche j\u00e4hrliche Wachstumsrate von Hoosier Energy f\u00fcr den 20-j\u00e4hrigen Prognosezeitraum 0,6 Prozent f\u00fcr Energie und 0,7 Prozent f\u00fcr die Nachfrage betr\u00e4gt. Dies ist mit den Prognosen dieser Gruppen vergleichbar. Diese Wachstumsraten basieren auf den erwarteten wirtschaftlichen und normalen Wetterbedingungen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

F\u00fcr Variationen dieser Bedingungen werden alternative Szenarien entwickelt. Zu den erwarteten und alternativen wirtschaftlichen Variablen geh\u00f6ren der Verbraucherpreisindex, demografische Daten und Rohstoffpreise. Die Daten stammen von Moody's, Woods & Poole und der Energy Information Administration. Die Wetterbedingungen werden in den Modellen mithilfe von Heiz- und K\u00fchlgradtagen mit normalem, mildem und schlechtem Wetter angepasst, basierend auf historischen Daten f\u00fcr das Gebiet jedes Mitglieds.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201eDie detaillierte Erfassung des Mitgliederwachstums ist ein wesentlicher Ma\u00dfstab f\u00fcr die Messung der Gesundheit der Mitgliedsgenossenschaften und f\u00fcr die Orientierung dieser\u201c, sagte Rice.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Die tiefgreifende Analyse der Prognosegruppe nutzt verschiedene Variablen und Modellierungstools, um eine solide Grundlage f\u00fcr die Planung der Mitgliedsgenossenschaften und von Hoosier Energy zu schaffen. Die entwickelten Prognosen liefern zuverl\u00e4ssige Informationen \u00fcber das Stromnetz und sein Wachstum und unterst\u00fctzen so fundierte Gesch\u00e4ftsentscheidungen. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mehr lesen<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Alle zwei Jahre erstellt die Prognosegruppe von Hoosier Energy eine Momentaufnahme der Energietrends, um 20-Jahres-Lastprognosen f\u00fcr das gesamte Stromnetz zu erstellen. Diese Gesch\u00e4ftsanalyse wird in der Power"},"author":1,"featured_media":7412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[199,200,83,92,201,196,202,203,204,205,206],"class_list":["post-5623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight-stories","tag-budgeting","tag-business","tag-energylines","tag-energylines-2021","tag-financial","tag-march","tag-planning","tag-power-requirements","tag-prs","tag-study","tag-trends","category-18","description-off"],"acf":false,"yoast_head":"\r\nModeling the Future - Hoosier Energy<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Every two years Hoosier Energy\u2019s forecasting looks at energy trends to develop 20-year load forecasts across the network. 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